Back to Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2
Main Women's Strawweight

Feng Xiaocan vs Arisa Matsuda

Road to UFC 4.1 + 4.2 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Feng Xiaocan
Arisa Matsuda
66% 34%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
24
Age
Δ 7y
30
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Xiaocan: 28 sig / 0 TD · Matsuda: 15 sig / 3 TD
Feng Xiaocan
Arisa Matsuda
47
Sig strikes landed
27
94
Sig strikes attempted
55
68
Total strikes landed
50
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
107s
Control time
189s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Feng Xiaocan

"Little Flower"
12-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W Road to UFC 3.5 + 3.6
—
W Road to UFC 3.1 + 3.2
—
Blue corner

Arisa Matsuda

0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30