Main
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman vs Joaquin Buckley
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Joaquin Buckley
66%
34%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
21-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-8
L3
Current streak
W6
18
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Usman: 41 sig / 4 TD ·
Buckley: 44 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Joaquin Buckley
86
Sig strikes landed
63
143
Sig strikes attempted
150
122
Total strikes landed
81
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
8.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
320s
Control time
40s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database
18 fights · 15-3
Last 5
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
W6
Joaquin Buckley
"New Mansa"
22-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—