Back to UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
Main Catch Weight

Tofiq Musayev vs Myktybek Orolbai

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. ·Baku Crystal Hall
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Tofiq Musayev
Myktybek Orolbai
50% 50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
36
Age
Δ 8y
27
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Musayev: 2 sig / 0 TD · Orolbai: 2 sig / 3 TD
Tofiq Musayev
Myktybek Orolbai
34
Sig strikes landed
44
75
Sig strikes attempted
100
53
Total strikes landed
71
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
243s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tofiq Musayev

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
L1

Myktybek Orolbai

16-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
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