Prelims1
Middleweight
Ismail Naurdiev vs JunYong Park
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
·Baku Crystal Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ismail Naurdiev
JunYong Park
73%
27%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
26-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-7
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Naurdiev: 76 sig / 1 TD ·
Park: 45 sig / 2 TD
Ismail Naurdiev
JunYong Park
55
Sig strikes landed
63
121
Sig strikes attempted
134
76
Total strikes landed
80
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.3
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
105s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ismail Naurdiev
26-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
JunYong Park
"The Iron Turtle"
20-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—