Prelims1
Heavyweight
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Mohammed Usman
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr.
·Baku Crystal Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Hamdy Abdelwahab
Mohammed Usman
52%
48%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 7"
79"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
8-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
12-5
W1
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Abdelwahab: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Usman: 86 sig / 0 TD
Hamdy Abdelwahab
Mohammed Usman
40
Sig strikes landed
44
85
Sig strikes attempted
106
47
Total strikes landed
65
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
88s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hamdy Abdelwahab
"The Hammer"
8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
Blue corner
L2
Mohammed Usman
"The Motor"
12-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—