Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Michael Morales
19%
81%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 8"
79"
39
Age
Δ 13y
26
22-11
Career record
Δ 33 pp
20-0
L3
Current streak
W5
23
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Burns: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Morales: 33 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Michael Morales
48
Sig strikes landed
74
111
Sig strikes attempted
127
59
Total strikes landed
100
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.3
5.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.70
89s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
23 fights · 15-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W5
Michael Morales
20-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—