Back to UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Prelims2 Lightweight

MarQuel Mederos vs Mark Choinski

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 ·Prudential Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
MarQuel Mederos
Mark Choinski
63% 37%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
30
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mederos: 110 sig / 0 TD · Choinski: 58 sig / 2 TD
MarQuel Mederos
Mark Choinski
43
Sig strikes landed
33
90
Sig strikes attempted
83
59
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
200s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

MarQuel Mederos

12-1-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
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W UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
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Blue corner

Mark Choinski

"The Shark"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30