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Prelims1 Middleweight

Ryan Loder vs Azamat Bekoev

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo ·Wells Fargo Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ryan Loder
Azamat Bekoev
32% 68%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
9-3
Career record
Δ 6 pp
21-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Loder: 13 sig / 0 TD · Bekoev: 23 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Loder
Azamat Bekoev
13
Sig strikes landed
23
28
Sig strikes attempted
35
24
Total strikes landed
42
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
149s
Control time
273s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ryan Loder

"Man of Steel"
9-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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Blue corner
W1

Azamat Bekoev

"Iron"
21-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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