Prelims1
Heavyweight
Thomas Petersen vs Don'Tale Mayes
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
·Wells Fargo Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thomas Petersen
Don'Tale Mayes
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 7"
81"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
11-5
Career record
Δ 16 pp
11-10
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Petersen: 28 sig / 9 TD ·
Mayes: 3 sig / 0 TD
Thomas Petersen
Don'Tale Mayes
41
Sig strikes landed
38
71
Sig strikes attempted
95
57
Total strikes landed
52
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
110s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thomas Petersen
"The Train"
11-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. I…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
Blue corner
L2
Don'Tale Mayes
"Lord Kong"
11-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—