Main
Welterweight
Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Ian Machado Garry
Carlos Prates
55%
45%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
78"
27
Age
Δ 4y
32
17-2
Career record
Δ 11 pp
25-7
L1
Current streak
W4
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Machado Garry: 126 sig / 4 TD ·
Prates: 63 sig / 0 TD
Ian Machado Garry
Carlos Prates
55
Sig strikes landed
39
113
Sig strikes attempted
92
68
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
195s
Control time
21s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ian Machado Garry
"The Future"
17-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
L
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
Blue corner
W4
Carlos Prates
"The Nightmare"
25-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—