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Anthony Smith vs Zhang Mingyang

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates ·T-Mobile Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Zhang Mingyang
51% 49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
38-23
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-8
L2
Current streak
W2
24
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smith: 10 sig / 0 TD · Mingyang: 63 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Smith
Zhang Mingyang
31
Sig strikes landed
37
55
Sig strikes attempted
81
31
Total strikes landed
52
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.2
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
34s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Anthony Smith

"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 24 fights · 13-11
Last 5
L UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
L UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
Blue corner
W2

Zhang Mingyang

"Mountain Tiger"
20-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—
W UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—