🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Belal Muhammad vs Jack Della Maddalena
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Jack Della Maddalena
59%
41%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
25-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-4
W8
Current streak
W7
19
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Muhammad: 132 sig / 3 TD ·
Della Maddalena: 178 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Jack Della Maddalena
74
Sig strikes landed
76
160
Sig strikes attempted
173
97
Total strikes landed
105
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
8.1
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
209s
Control time
16s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
19 fights · 15-3
Last 5
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
Blue corner
W7
Jack Della Maddalena
19-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—