Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Josh Emmett
Lerone Murphy
34%
66%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
40
Age
Δ 6y
34
20-7
Career record
Δ 16 pp
18-1-1
W1
Current streak
W7
14
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Emmett: 41 sig / 4 TD ·
Murphy: 84 sig / 0 TD
Josh Emmett
Lerone Murphy
58
Sig strikes landed
79
140
Sig strikes attempted
160
66
Total strikes landed
91
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
44s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Josh Emmett
20-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
Blue corner
W7
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
18-1-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—