Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Morono
Carlos Leal
37%
63%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
24-14
Career record
Δ 11 pp
23-8
L2
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Morono: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Leal: 79 sig / 0 TD
Alex Morono
Carlos Leal
94
Sig strikes landed
110
205
Sig strikes attempted
228
113
Total strikes landed
122
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
72s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
24-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
22 fights · 13-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
Blue corner
L1
Carlos Leal
"The Lion"
23-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—