Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Manel Kape
Asu Almabayev
43%
57%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
23-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-3
W1
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kape: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Almabayev: 40 sig / 0 TD
Manel Kape
Asu Almabayev
33
Sig strikes landed
38
64
Sig strikes attempted
88
49
Total strikes landed
52
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.5
0.3
Takedowns attempted
7.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
25s
Control time
294s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Manel Kape
"StarBoy"
23-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
Blue corner
W4
Asu Almabayev
"Zulfikar"
24-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—