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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Modestas Bukauskas vs Rafael Cerqueira

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song ·Climate Pledge Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Modestas Bukauskas
Rafael Cerqueira
82% 18%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
21-7
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Bukauskas: 16 sig / 0 TD · Cerqueira: 9 sig / 0 TD
Modestas Bukauskas
Rafael Cerqueira
30
Sig strikes landed
25
57
Sig strikes attempted
40
60
Total strikes landed
41
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
181s
Control time
305s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Modestas Bukauskas

"The Baltic Gladiator"
21-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
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L UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
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W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
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W UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
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Blue corner
L1

Rafael Cerqueira

"The Lion"
11-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
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