Main
Lightweight
Ismael Bonfim vs Nazim Sadykhov
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ismael Bonfim
Nazim Sadykhov
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
21-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
11-2-2
W1
Current streak
D1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 1
Bonfim: 26 sig / 0 TD ·
Sadykhov: 13 sig / 0 TD
Ismael Bonfim
Nazim Sadykhov
47
Sig strikes landed
33
96
Sig strikes attempted
86
63
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
78s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ismael Bonfim
"Marreta"
21-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
D1
Nazim Sadykhov
"Black Wolf"
11-2-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-0
Last 3
D
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—