Back to UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
Main Middleweight

Jared Cannonier vs Gregory Rodrigues

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues ·Meta Apex
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jared Cannonier
Gregory Rodrigues
35% 65%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
41
Age
Δ 8y
33
18-10
Career record
Δ 13 pp
20-6
L2
Current streak
W3
18
UFC fights in our DB
9

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Cannonier: 98 sig / 1 TD · Rodrigues: 93 sig / 0 TD
Jared Cannonier
Gregory Rodrigues
65
Sig strikes landed
77
131
Sig strikes attempted
152
80
Total strikes landed
86
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
32s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jared Cannonier

"The Killa Gorilla"
18-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
41
In our database 18 fights · 10-8
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
Blue corner
W3

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"
20-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—