Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Prelims1 Lightweight

MarQuel Mederos vs Austin Hubbard

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg ·Arena CDMX
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
MarQuel Mederos
Austin Hubbard
74% 26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
12-1-1
Career record
Δ 25 pp
17-11
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Mederos: 44 sig / 0 TD · Hubbard: 26 sig / 2 TD
MarQuel Mederos
Austin Hubbard
61
Sig strikes landed
56
152
Sig strikes attempted
136
82
Total strikes landed
75
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
208s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
84%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

MarQuel Mederos

12-1-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
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Blue corner
L1

Austin Hubbard

"Thud"
17-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
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W UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
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L UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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