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Diyar Nurgozhay vs Brendson Ribeiro

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Diyar Nurgozhay
Brendson Ribeiro
61% 39%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 7"
81"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Nurgozhay: 17 sig / 2 TD · Ribeiro: 28 sig / 0 TD
Diyar Nurgozhay
Brendson Ribeiro
35
Sig strikes landed
36
66
Sig strikes attempted
76
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Diyar Nurgozhay

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
W1

Brendson Ribeiro

"The Gorilla"
18-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
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