Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tagir Ulanbekov
Clayton Carpenter
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
18-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
9-3
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ulanbekov: 42 sig / 3 TD ·
Carpenter: 42 sig / 1 TD
Tagir Ulanbekov
Clayton Carpenter
26
Sig strikes landed
21
52
Sig strikes attempted
41
55
Total strikes landed
33
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
247s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tagir Ulanbekov
18-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
Blue corner
W2
Clayton Carpenter
9-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—