Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Leon Edwards
Sean Brady
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 1y
32
22-7
Career record
Δ 15 pp
20-2
L1
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Edwards: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Brady: 57 sig / 5 TD
Leon Edwards
Sean Brady
55
Sig strikes landed
50
109
Sig strikes attempted
108
76
Total strikes landed
85
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
4.5
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
22-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 14-3
Last 5
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Sean Brady
20-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—