Prelims1
Bantamweight
Nathan Fletcher vs Caolan Loughran
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nathan Fletcher
Caolan Loughran
56%
44%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
10-3
Career record
Δ 0 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Fletcher: 59 sig / 1 TD ·
Loughran: 30 sig / 6 TD
Nathan Fletcher
Caolan Loughran
48
Sig strikes landed
25
99
Sig strikes attempted
55
66
Total strikes landed
46
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nathan Fletcher
10-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
Blue corner
L1
Caolan Loughran
"The Don"
10-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—