Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Maheshate
Nikolas Motta
57%
43%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
11-5
Career record
Δ 4 pp
16-6
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maheshate: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Motta: 78 sig / 0 TD
Maheshate
Nikolas Motta
33
Sig strikes landed
36
86
Sig strikes attempted
101
42
Total strikes landed
41
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
37s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Maheshate
11-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
Blue corner
W1
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
16-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—