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Zhang Mingyang vs Ozzy Diaz

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo ·Galaxy Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Zhang Mingyang
Ozzy Diaz
78% 22%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
79"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mingyang: 17 sig / 0 TD · Diaz: 9 sig / 0 TD
Zhang Mingyang
Ozzy Diaz
32
Sig strikes landed
17
71
Sig strikes attempted
36
41
Total strikes landed
25
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.00
70s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Zhang Mingyang

"Mountain Tiger"
20-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
Blue corner

Ozzy Diaz

0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34