Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Nick Klein
Heraldo Souza
52%
48%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Klein: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Souza: 1 sig / 0 TD
Nick Klein
Heraldo Souza
35
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
73
48
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Klein
"Blue Collar"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Heraldo Souza
"Savage"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30