Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Clayton Carpenter
Lucas Rocha
26%
74%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
28
Age
Δ 4y
24
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Carpenter: 34 sig / 2 TD ·
Rocha: 17 sig / 0 TD
Clayton Carpenter
Lucas Rocha
21
Sig strikes landed
24
55
Sig strikes attempted
47
32
Total strikes landed
46
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
197s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Clayton Carpenter
9-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
Blue corner
Lucas Rocha
"Fenomeno"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24