Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Charles Johnson
Sumudaerji
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
20-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-8
W3
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 65 sig / 2 TD ·
Sumudaerji: 75 sig / 0 TD
Charles Johnson
Sumudaerji
51
Sig strikes landed
55
120
Sig strikes attempted
123
71
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
112s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Charles Johnson
"InnerG"
20-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
Blue corner
L2
Sumudaerji
"The Tibetan Eagle"
19-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—