Back to UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Jessica Penne vs Elise Reed

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jessica Penne
Elise Reed
50% 50%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
63"
42
Age
Δ 10y
32
14-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
8-6
L2
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Penne: 54 sig / 1 TD · Reed: 117 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Penne
Elise Reed
36
Sig strikes landed
40
94
Sig strikes attempted
92
67
Total strikes landed
60
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
238s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jessica Penne

14-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
Blue corner
L1

Elise Reed

8-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—