Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Gaston Bolanos
Cortavious Romious
51%
49%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bolanos: 53 sig / 2 TD ·
Romious: 17 sig / 4 TD
Gaston Bolanos
Cortavious Romious
41
Sig strikes landed
39
91
Sig strikes attempted
85
51
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gaston Bolanos
"The Dreamkiller"
8-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
Blue corner
Cortavious Romious
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31