Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Neil Magny
Carlos Prates
39%
61%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
31-16
Career record
Δ 12 pp
25-7
L1
Current streak
W3
33
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Magny: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Prates: 12 sig / 1 TD
Neil Magny
Carlos Prates
33
Sig strikes landed
48
102
Sig strikes attempted
111
45
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.60
92s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Neil Magny
"The Haitian Sensation"
31-16
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
33 fights · 22-11
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W3
Carlos Prates
"The Nightmare"
25-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—