Back to DWCS 8.7
Main Women's Strawweight

Alexia Thainara vs Rose Conceicao

DWCS 8.7 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Alexia Thainara
Rose Conceicao
70% 30%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
29
Age
Δ 1y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thainara: 101 sig / 3 TD · Conceicao: 46 sig / 0 TD
Alexia Thainara
Rose Conceicao
40
Sig strikes landed
32
88
Sig strikes attempted
75
69
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
162s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Alexia Thainara

"Burguesinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Rose Conceicao

0-0
Career record
Height
55"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27