Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Vallejos
Cam Teague
82%
18%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Vallejos: 48 sig / 0 TD ·
Teague: 14 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Vallejos
Cam Teague
50
Sig strikes landed
53
103
Sig strikes attempted
113
72
Total strikes landed
63
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
135s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kevin Vallejos
"El Chino"
18-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 7.5
—
Blue corner
Cam Teague
"Chaos"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27