Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jacobe Smith
Christien Savoie
72%
28%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Smith: 55 sig / 7 TD ·
Savoie: 11 sig / 0 TD
Jacobe Smith
Christien Savoie
36
Sig strikes landed
34
73
Sig strikes attempted
69
77
Total strikes landed
48
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jacobe Smith
"Cobe"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
Christien Savoie
"The Tiger"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32