🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr.
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Pereira
Khalil Rountree Jr.
63%
37%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
37
Age
Δ 3y
35
14-3
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-7
W4
Current streak
W5
9
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Pereira: 127 sig / 0 TD ·
Rountree Jr.: 61 sig / 0 TD
Alex Pereira
Khalil Rountree Jr.
71
Sig strikes landed
33
141
Sig strikes attempted
74
60
Total strikes landed
31
-0.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
18s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
76%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
14-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
Blue corner
W5
Khalil Rountree Jr.
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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W
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W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—