Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Austin Bashi
Dorian Ramos
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Bashi: 22 sig / 10 TD ·
Ramos: 19 sig / 1 TD
Austin Bashi
Dorian Ramos
38
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
68
57
Total strikes landed
47
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Austin Bashi
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Dorian Ramos
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31