Back to UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho
Prelims1 Lightweight

Dennis Buzukja vs Francis Marshall

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Dennis Buzukja
Francis Marshall
49% 51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
13-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-4
W1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Buzukja: 66 sig / 0 TD · Marshall: 57 sig / 1 TD
Dennis Buzukja
Francis Marshall
38
Sig strikes landed
37
86
Sig strikes attempted
84
53
Total strikes landed
54
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.1
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
31%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Dennis Buzukja

"The Great"
13-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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L UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
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L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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Blue corner
L2

Francis Marshall

"Fire"
10-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
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