Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Stephanie Luciano vs Talita Alencar
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephanie Luciano
Talita Alencar
68%
32%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 7"
58"
25
Age
Δ 9y
34
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Luciano: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Alencar: 41 sig / 1 TD
Stephanie Luciano
Talita Alencar
41
Sig strikes landed
35
102
Sig strikes attempted
86
70
Total strikes landed
73
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
131s
Control time
228s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Stephanie Luciano
"Rondinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
W1
Talita Alencar
"Problem Child"
9-1-1
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
59"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
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