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Prelims1 Featherweight

Zygimantas Ramaska vs Nathan Fletcher

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Zygimantas Ramaska
Nathan Fletcher
55% 45%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ramaska: 6 sig / 0 TD · Fletcher: 14 sig / 4 TD
Zygimantas Ramaska
Nathan Fletcher
36
Sig strikes landed
34
77
Sig strikes attempted
69
53
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Zygimantas Ramaska

0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Nathan Fletcher

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27