Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Sean Brady
32%
68%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
38
Age
Δ 6y
32
22-11
Career record
Δ 24 pp
20-2
L2
Current streak
W1
22
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Burns: 47 sig / 1 TD ·
Brady: 130 sig / 7 TD
Gilbert Burns
Sean Brady
41
Sig strikes landed
57
81
Sig strikes attempted
111
55
Total strikes landed
86
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
102s
Control time
232s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
22 fights · 15-7
Last 5
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
Blue corner
W1
Sean Brady
20-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—