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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Taylor Lapilus vs Vince Morales

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis ·Accor Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Taylor Lapilus
Vince Morales
85% 15%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
32
Age
Δ 1y
34
22-4
Career record
Δ 27 pp
16-12
W1
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
8

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lapilus: 94 sig / 0 TD · Morales: 39 sig / 2 TD
Taylor Lapilus
Vince Morales
65
Sig strikes landed
53
142
Sig strikes attempted
135
85
Total strikes landed
64
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
109s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Taylor Lapilus

"Double Impact"
22-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
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W UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
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W UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
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Blue corner
L2

Vince Morales

"Vandetta"
16-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
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W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
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W UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
L UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
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