Prelims1
Lightweight
Bolaji Oki vs Chris Duncan
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Bolaji Oki
Chris Duncan
49%
51%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
11-4
Career record
Δ 6 pp
15-4
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oki: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Duncan: 10 sig / 0 TD
Bolaji Oki
Chris Duncan
48
Sig strikes landed
54
125
Sig strikes attempted
124
63
Total strikes landed
72
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bolaji Oki
"The Zulu Warrior"
11-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Duncan
"The Problem"
15-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—