Main
Lightweight
Renato Moicano vs Benoit Saint Denis
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Renato Moicano
Benoit Saint Denis
43%
57%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 7y
29
22-7-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-4
W3
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Moicano: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Saint Denis: 25 sig / 0 TD
Renato Moicano
Benoit Saint Denis
43
Sig strikes landed
47
90
Sig strikes attempted
107
52
Total strikes landed
64
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
82s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
Blue corner
L1
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
17-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—