Back to UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez
Prelims1 Welterweight

Evan Elder vs Darrius Flowers

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez ·Ball Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Evan Elder
Darrius Flowers
71% 29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
27
Age
Δ 3y
30
11-2
Career record
Δ 28 pp
13-9-1
W1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Elder: 45 sig / 0 TD · Flowers: 24 sig / 1 TD
Evan Elder
Darrius Flowers
52
Sig strikes landed
49
102
Sig strikes attempted
99
69
Total strikes landed
63
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
82s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Evan Elder

"The Phenom"
11-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
Blue corner
L2

Darrius Flowers

"Beast Mode"
13-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—