Back to UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Luana Santos vs Mariya Agapova

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez ·Ball Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luana Santos
Mariya Agapova
69% 31%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
Δ 3y
27
11-2
Career record
Δ 22 pp
10-6
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Santos: 2 sig / 1 TD · Agapova: 3 sig / 0 TD
Luana Santos
Mariya Agapova
43
Sig strikes landed
40
84
Sig strikes attempted
88
66
Total strikes landed
58
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
247s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
34%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Luana Santos

11-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
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W UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
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Blue corner
L2

Mariya Agapova

"Money Mashka"
10-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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L UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
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W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
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L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
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W UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
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