Main
Featherweight
Julian Erosa vs Christian Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez
·Ball Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Christian Rodriguez
66%
34%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
32-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
13-4
W1
Current streak
W4
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Erosa: 35 sig / 1 TD ·
Rodriguez: 33 sig / 0 TD
Julian Erosa
Christian Rodriguez
49
Sig strikes landed
43
98
Sig strikes attempted
86
65
Total strikes landed
58
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
210s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W4
Christian Rodriguez
"Ceerod"
13-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—