Prelims1
Heavyweight
Mohammed Usman vs Thomas Petersen
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mohammed Usman
Thomas Petersen
56%
44%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
12-5
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Usman: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Petersen: 76 sig / 2 TD
Mohammed Usman
Thomas Petersen
49
Sig strikes landed
41
107
Sig strikes attempted
82
72
Total strikes landed
55
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
256s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mohammed Usman
"The Motor"
12-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
L1
Thomas Petersen
"The Train"
11-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—