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Main Welterweight

Miguel Baeza vs Punahele Soriano

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov ·KFC Yum! Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Miguel Baeza
Punahele Soriano
52% 48%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
10-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
13-5
L3
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Baeza: 7 sig / 0 TD · Soriano: 144 sig / 5 TD
Miguel Baeza
Punahele Soriano
41
Sig strikes landed
38
93
Sig strikes attempted
83
45
Total strikes landed
50
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
29s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Miguel Baeza

"Caramel Thunder"
10-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
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L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
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W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
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Blue corner
L2

Punahele Soriano

"Puna"
13-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
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L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
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L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
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