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Main Featherweight

Shin Haraguchi vs JunYoung Hong

Road to UFC 3.1 + 3.2 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Shin Haraguchi
JunYoung Hong
76% 24%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 8y
33
8-3
Career record
Δ 16 pp
13-9-1
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Haraguchi: 20 sig / 13 TD · Hong: 10 sig / 0 TD
Shin Haraguchi
JunYoung Hong
38
Sig strikes landed
29
86
Sig strikes attempted
64
63
Total strikes landed
52
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.8
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
262s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Shin Haraguchi

8-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L Road to UFC 2.7
—
W Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
—
Blue corner
L1

JunYoung Hong

"Drunken Red"
13-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L Road to UFC 1.2
—