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Main Featherweight

Masuto Kawana vs YoungJae Song

Road to UFC 3.1 + 3.2 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Masuto Kawana
YoungJae Song
49% 51%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kawana: 35 sig / 13 TD · Song: 50 sig / 0 TD
Masuto Kawana
YoungJae Song
36
Sig strikes landed
37
73
Sig strikes attempted
77
51
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Masuto Kawana

"Mast"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

YoungJae Song

"Super Rookie"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28